It seems as though the stock markets have lost their magic, as the FTSE 100 dipped back into the red for the year last week, one concerns over expensive oil, and worse than expected UK retail sales numbers, which in turn forced traders to reduce their equity positions. With their risk appetite waning, we are seeing money flowing back into US treasuries, which is being helped by supportive comments from Russia regarding the strength of the dollar as a reserve currency.

The biggest shocker of the week was the price of oil, which managed to trade within a small range, amid attacks on an oil field in Nigeria. Some analysts pointed to the fact that traders are afraid to push the price of oil any further without more support from the economic data, but unfortunately for traders, next week is very light on important economic data or fundamental news. Indeed it was another week of uncertainty as fears of a bear market bounce continued to circulate, causing traders and analysts to be cautious of putting more money into the market.

This week, economic data due to be released will include  more housing data from US, along with the final reading of the US GDP numbers. While many analysts are expecting an increase of new home sales, it could be argued that they are being overly optimistic. Over the last few weeks the 10 year bonds have been increasing in price, which has a negative effect on the price of mortgage rates, and many believe these numbers will come out worse than expected. There should be no surprise when it comes to the US GDP numbers, however this is not a racing certainty. Should the numbers come out worse than expected, oil prices which have priced in a bottom and a recovery, will be sold off heavily, and might end up in the 60 dollar per barrel area.

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