Aussie Dollar vs Japanese Yen - Daily Chart 23rd July 2009

It’s another flat opening for the FTSE, CAC and DAX this morning as the excitement over renewed bank profits start to subside. The US earnings season continues to roll on and so far the period has passed without any landmines going off. Unfortunately, it appears that Goldman Sachs got the earnings season off to such a spectacular start that reactions to positive reports such as Apple have been muted. Earnings season gives investors a chance to assess the overall profitability of US stocks and as European stock markets usually follow the American lead, the results can have global implications. The so called Big Mac indicator will be put to test today with McDonald’s releasing their results before the US open. After the close of US markets we have results from other another global behemoth, Microsoft. At 08.30 GMT we have UK retail sales followed by US unemployment claims at 12.30. The afternoon brings US existing home sales at 14.00 and a Bank of Canada monetary policy report at 14.30.

My Fixed Odds Bet

The Yen is being hit hard in early trading as investors look elsewhere for better returns. The biggest moves have been on the GBP/ JPY, EUR/JPY and the AUD/ JPY in particular. Investors are looking particularly attracted by the higher yields available with Australian securities. This makes the AUD/JPY today’s pair in play. Currently trading around 77.20, the AUD/JPY has recently had a habit of reversing gains made in early trading. A good way to play this might be a ‘Double Trades’ predicting that the AUD/JPY will fall today. Double Trades always return 100% if correct.

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Pound vs Dollar - Daily Candle Chart 17th July 2009

It’s been a good start to the day for the FTSE, CAC and DAX. This is largely down to a final hour surge in US markets last night with the European indices playing catch up this morning. Speculators rushed to take a position in Google last night ahead of their earnings announcement after JP Morgan beat expectations. Although markets are higher this morning, there are reasons to be cautious. Firstly, Google’s results were mixed with their share price plunging in after hours trading, and secondly the overnight bomb blasts in Jakarta have also forced investors on the defensive, putting the brakes on gains in financial markets this morning.

Fixed Odds Bet Today

As we saw in early trading yesterday, investors have reverted to risk averse mode, moving to safer assets overnight. The yen and dollar are in demand with the pound and Aussie dollar particularly out of favour with investors. There is little by the way of economic announcements this morning apart from US building permits at 12.30. The pound vs dollar has been one of the morning’s biggest movers and if US building permits come in better than expected, the pound’s slump could continue. One way to play this might be a one touch trade with the trigger level set at around 1.6100. A One touch trade over three days could return 259% over this period.

Good luck with this fixed odds suggestion and remember, you can find all the latest currency trading news, live news, latest prices on the currency charts, latest movements on the index charts or commodity prices, by following the appropriate links. Remember also that if you are looking for a good fx broker or fixed odds broker, then again just click the relevant link and this will take you to a new page on the fixed odds site, and good luck with this one.

Pounds To Dollars Daily Candle Chart - GBP/USD 14th July 2009

It’s all a bit flat this morning, but this certainly won’t last. Yesterday, stock markets rallied on rumours that the profits from investment bank Goldman Sachs will tip $2 billion. This was the first positive catalyst that investors have had in a few days and they grabbed it with both hands. This morning we’re seeing the calm before the storm with Goldman’s actual results being released just before the opening of US markets. It could therefore be a volatile open for the Dow Jones depending on how well Goldman’s actual results are received. It’s not just Goldman’s results that could excite today, we have a raft of important economic announcements to come this morning. From 08.30 GMT we have UK CPI and RPI which will give trades an idea of the current inflation expectations for the UK economy. This could have a knock effect on the pound especially with MPC member Posen speaking at the same time. At 09.00 we have German and European ZEW economic sentiment which could impact the euro. Then at 12.30 we get US retails sales and PPI. It’s quiet now, but this really could be the calm before the storm today.

Fixed Odds Suggested Trade

With Goldman Sachs releasing their results from midday, and a raft of important economic announcements, dollar pairs could be in play today with the pound vs dollar potentially the most active of all the pairs. It’s relatively calm until 08.30 GMT so it may be a good time to profit from the coming volatility before it happens. A one day breakout trade could be a good way to play this as the GBP/USD can go in either direction and the trade still winning as long as it goes somewhere fast as it could do today.

Good luck with this fixed odds suggestion and remember, you can find all the latest currency trading news, live news, latest prices on the currency charts, latest movements on the index charts or commodity prices, by following the appropriate links. Remember also that if you are looking for a good fx broker or fixed odds broker, then again just click the relevant link and this will take you to a new page on the fixed odds site, and good luck with this one.

Pounds To Dollars Daily Chart - GBP vs USD 13th July 2009

Unfortunately the new week offers no respite as the FTSE, DAX and CAC are all down by at least a third of a percent in the first hour of trading. Weekend economic sentiment drifted downwards as rumours of a second massive US stimulus package continue to grow. Today’s top economic announcement is the Bank of Canada business outlook survey at 14.30 GMT. In addition to this we have ECB president Trichet speaking at 10.30 GMT and the US Federal budget balance at 18.00. Perhaps more important than any standard economic announcement, is the start of US earnings season this week. Every quarter, US giants such as Microsoft and Apple release their latest numbers resulting in huge volatility in US stock markets as traders adjust their expectations. There is a fear that company profits will be even worse than previously expected which is one of the reasons behind recent falls.

My Fixed Odds Suggested Trade

The pound is under pressure this morning against the euro (-0.85%), the dollar (-0.88%) and the yen (-1.15%). The Aussie dollar is also out of favour, falling by similar amounts against the major currencies. Weakening commodity prices is a common factor with oil once again starting the trading session below $60. The pound is continuing to tumble this morning, making it my suggested fixed odds trade for today.

The GBP/USD (pound/US dollar) found support at 1.6000 on Wednesday, with the pair rebounding swiftly off this level. Now we’re heading for a retest and this time the 1.6000 level might not hold. A one touch trade might be a good way to play this,  predicting that the GBP/USD will touch 1.5950 in the next 24 hours could return 120%. The level has to be touched just once for you to win.

Good luck with this fixed odds suggestion and remember, you can find all the latest currency trading news, live news, latest prices on the currency charts, latest movements on the index charts or commodity prices, by following the appropriate links. Remember also that if you are looking for a good fx broker or fixed odds broker, then again just click the relevant link and this will take you to a new page on the fixed odds site, and good luck with this one.

Gold Price Chart - Daily Gold Prices 26th June 2009

We’re looking at a very strong opening from the FTSE, CAC and DAX this morning, as a rollover from yesterday evening’s sustained rally on US markets creates a pull through effect into Europe. Last night’s buying surge appears to have been a delayed reaction to Ben Bernanke’s testimony, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both closing strongly, and moving in to positive territory for the week.

European stocks should start on the front foot from the start, and there’s a strong chance that the major indices will finish the week in the black. Monday’s sell off is increasingly looking like a fakeout as previous trends are re-engaged. Appetite for risk and confidence are both returning as evidenced by a slightly weaker dollar this morning and oil prices pushing over $70 a barrel once again.

The forex markets have been relatively quiet so far this morning, with the US dollar down against the euro as traders look for riskier assets elsewhere, but this morning’s biggest mover is spot gold which is up around 0.65%. After backing and filling for a good while, it could be the precious metal’s chance to finally make some serious moves. One Touch and Break out trades could be the best way to play this over the next four days.

Fixed Odds Trade Of The Day

My suggested fixed odds bet for today is a one touch trade predicting that spot gold prices will touch $960 in the next 5 days which could return 138% if correct. Good luck with this fixed odds suggestion and remember, you can find all the latest currency trading news, live news, latest prices on the currency charts, latest movements on the index charts or commodity prices, by following the appropriate links. Remember also that if you are looking for a good fx broker or fixed odds broker, then again just click the relevant link and this will take you to a new page on the fixed odds site, and good luck with this one.

There appears to be a standoff between those who believe higher oil prices and the prospect of higher interest rates are indicators of the worse being over. On the other hand, the pessimists believe that growth will continue to falter, and higher oil prices will bring the stagflation monster out of hiding.

The optimists scored a point last week, with US jobs data topping analysts’ estimates and retails sales rising for the first time in three months. However, it will take a meaningful breakout of the recent trading range before it can be said that either the bulls or the bears have got the upper hand.

Oil finished the week up strongly, breaking through and holding above the $70 level. The pound recovered more of the ground lost last week against the dollar, and has continued to make multi month highs against the Euro and Japanese Yen. Sterling has been one of the strongest currencies over the last month, but there is still a long way to go if the pound is to reach pre Northern rock levels from almost two years ago.

This week promises to be busier, with more top tier economic announcements due. On Tuesday, the central bank of Australia releases the minutes from their last meeting, and the Bank of Japan release their monetary policy statement. Later that day we have UK CPI, German ZEW sentiment and US building permits. Wednesday brings UK claimant count change, and the release of the minutes from the last MPC meeting. Governor King is also scheduled to speak at some point in the day. After Midday we have US CPI data and Bernanke speaking. Thursday brings UK retail sales and US unemployment claims, so a busy week in prospect for fixed odds trading, with plenty of opportunities across all the markets.

You can find all the latest currency trading news, live news, latest prices on the currency charts, latest movements on the index charts or commodity prices, by following the appropriate links. Remember also that if you are looking for a good fx broker or fixed odds broker, then again just click the relevant link and this will take you to a new page on the fixed odds site.

In keeping with the theme of the last few months, most of the movements last week were led by sentiment concerning the banking sector. The week started badly on fears that US banks might fail the stress test, and ended positively when it emerged that it was likely that all had passed. However, the release of the stress tests seemed to bring more questions than answers with many believing that the test wasn’t particularly stressful. Some analysts point out that the ‘adverse’ conditions tested do not go anywhere near far enough. The suspicion is that the US treasury didn’t want any further shocks to rock the financial sector, a decision that may come back to haunt them.

As expected, the budget was the focus of analysis in the UK last week. The FTSE was largely unaffected by the budget with most companies gathering their earnings from across the globe, not just the UK. Currency markets were the most volatile as traders reacted to the announcement that UK borrowing will hit a peacetime record of £175bn, or 12% of GDP. Darling surprised many by adjusting his forecast for UK growth for 2009 downwards to -3.5%. This puts the treasury’s forecast in line with other institutions such as the IMF, but Darling’s forecasts for 2009 and 2011 are still far more optimistic than any other outside organisation other than the Bank of England.

Considering how inaccurate the government’s forecasts have been so far, it is little wonder that currency traders didn’t believe a word of it, and sold the pound aggressively against the euro, dollar and yen. The pound gave back all the gains made against the euro last week as UK GDP figures released on Friday showed that Darling’s projections may already be overly optimistic.

Increasingly a barometer of global economic confidence, June crude oil contracts closed the week above $51, while curiously, natural gas futures continued their down trend closing the week at $3.37, some 75% down from the peak last June. Gold prices endured a better week, closing up significantly for the first time in five weeks.

The highlights for the coming week include the FOMC statement on Tuesday and ISM manufacturing on Friday. The UK has a number of economic announcements, including the UK Nationwide house price index on Wednesday, and the Halifax House price index also expected at some point in the week. Although questions remain over accounting tricks employed by banks and the depth of the stress test from the US government, there could be room for more upside next week on US markets.

As always you can find all the latest currency trading news, live news, latest prices on the currency charts, or the latest movements on the index charts by following the appropriate links, and if you are looking for a good fx broker or fixed odds broker, then again just click the relevant link.

Markets shot out of the gates last Monday, and more importantly, managed to hold those gains for most of the week. The news flow continued to be mixed, but investors chose to take a ‘glass half full’ rather than a ‘glass half empty’ philosophy. For example on Wednesday, markets were buoyed by the better than expected US durable goods orders. Traders chose to focus on the short term improvement in these figures, rather than the fact that prices were down 22% since February 2008, registering their second largest year on year fall. When confidence is shot to pieces, this positive spin would not happen, but now the bulls have a spring in their step and are willing to take some risks.

There was no positive spin to put on the failure of the UK government gilt last week though. The gilt auction failure causes a volatility spike in government bonds and across currency markets.

Ironically it is the financial sector that provided some stability within the FTSE last week, with the momentum still behind a resurgent Barclays. Lloyds, RBS, HSBC and Barclays finished the week up 27%, 5%, 5% and 52% respectively. Barclays launched higher on the news that it is putting IShares up for sale, and the buying continued when it was reported the Barclays had passed the MPC’s stress test, which means it may not have to return to the market for new funds.

Commodity prices had a mixed week with oil dropping around $1.50 on Friday, erasing most of the gains made earlier in the week. Aside from economic factors, President Obama’s fuel efficiency plans appeared to hit crude and gasoline prices. Amongst other things, Obama has set a minimum requirement of 30.2 miles per gallon for passenger cars. The annual vehicle distance travelled by US drivers was increasing at an almost parabolic rate until 2008, when the total vehicle miles travelled dropped by 3.7% year on year. A continuation of this trend, and US government support for greater fuel efficiency, could put further pressure on crude’s nascent recovery.

On the currency trading news, there was a big reversal of sentiment against the euro, which closed down hard against the yen, dollar and even the pound. Fears over the European economy intensified last week, increasing speculation that the ECB will cut to 1% this coming week. Rumours of the ECB planning to follow the MPC and FOMC in quantitative easing also hit the currency.

As usual with the first week of the month, the hot trading ticket this week is the US Non Farm Payroll report on Friday, preceded by the ADP employment change report on Wednesday. Aside from this, there is the ECB rate decision on Thursday, and US pending home sales on Wednesday. The nationwide House Price Index and Halifax House Price Index are both due sometime throughout the week, and the G20 meeting on Wednesday could spring some surprises, so check with your fx broker for all the latest details.

Last week, the so called “Dr Doom”, Nouriel Roubini stated that markets had got ahead of themselves, with analysts starting to underestimate how bad company earnings announcements will be in the coming months, suggesting that what we are seeing in the markets at present is nothing more than a dead cat bounce!

The euro enjoyed a strong week against the dollar and pound, pushing sterling to its lowest levels since 2008. UK gilts endured a volatile week as the Bank of England turned on the printing press. Currency markets are taking the view that UK PLC has a rather large hole it its pocket, a hole which is getting larger as the global crisis develops. The weak pound isn’t bad news for all British companies though, with BP benefiting from a stronger dollar and higher oil prices, and rising strongly. Oil closed the trading week with a slight gain, but this could all change with Sundays OPEC meeting.

The financial sector enjoyed a positive week, with the insurer Standard life and HSBC among the standout performers. One of the catalysts was the Citigroup profit outlook, which indicated that the company is set for its best quarter since it last made a profit in 2007. The stock rose 75% on the news, and helped push up other financial stocks in the process. Despite last weeks rally, Citigroup is still in the realms of being a penny stock.

Whether this turns out to be a bear market rally, or a true reversal point, remains to be seen. Since October 2007 there have been eight 5% plus days on the S&P 500. Excluding Tuesdays blast off, in all the previous instances the rallies were short lived, and the sellers took control once more. Last week the IMF warned of a great recession, and Meredith Whitney sage of the credit crunch, is warning that credit cards will be the next financial crisis to break. This weeks highlights include the release of the last MPC meeting minutes on Wednesday morning, and the FOMC statement in the evening.  There is also a raft of inflation data with US PPI on Tuesday, and CPI on Thursday. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke, finishes off the trading week with a speech on Friday afternoon. All the economic news is now available in the live economic calendar, along with a live news feed and the latest currency trading news. In addition all the major sectors bow have live charts, including stock charts from around the world, commodity prices, and live index charts. While it is unlikely that the bears have been forced into hibernation for good, last weeks rally was a promising change of sentiment from what has been a truly awful last six months.

On a positive side stocks soared on Tuesday and Wednesday, as oil fell further towards $120 on speculation that a slowing global economy will check demand. It was to be further bad news for hedge funds, who recently endured their worse month for many years, as the leveraged oil trades unwound with falling prices. Stalling oil prices were also not helping BP, as it pulled back further from previous highs. The headline results were impressive, but a significant proportion of those profits come from their Russian joint venture, which looks like it will be torn apart over the coming months.

Elsewhere the US house price collapse continues to accelerate. The S&P/Case-Schiller Index shows annual declines in prices of existing single family homes of 15.8%. With UK politicians discussing plans to help out mortgage lenders, they would be well served to use the US housing market as an advanced proxy of what could happen in the UK.

Initial reactions to Fridays US Nonfarm payrolls were positive as the headline figures fell less than expected. However, on close inspection, the figures still make grim reading. The US unemployment rate increased to 5.7%, which was 0.1% above expectations, and since December 2007 463,000 jobs have been lost. Although the jobs report was the Friday’s big story, GMs earnings announcements was a big drag on US and by consequence, UK indices. General Motors announced a $15.5 billion loss, which when you consider GM has a market cap of just $6.3 billion, the loss equates to around 2.5 times the net worth of the company.

Next week is unlikely to bring an end to the recent volatility with some major top tier economic announcements due. On Tuesday morning we have UK manufacturing data and services PMI, followed by US ISM non-manufacturing composite early in the afternoon. On Tuesday evening, we have the big one, the US interest statement. Although a no change is largely expected, as ever it is expectations for the future that will excite. It is Europes turn on Thursday, with the release of the MPC and ECB statements. Both are again expected to be no change, but the statements and overall timbre will be analysed and re-analysed with regard to future expectations.

Markets have been working themselves out of oversold territory and now it is crunch time. The recovery since the lows of July, could be the bulls last rally for the short term, unless any gains can actually be held over the next week or so. What has been impressive about the last two or three weeks is the bulls ability to rally markets in the face of dark news flows. Now the rally has stalled, there may not be enough momentum left to withstand further bleak economic headlines.